Evaluating the Investment Potential of SMBX Small Business Loans
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Chapter 1: Introduction to SMBX Small Business Loans
Is the SMBX platform a viable option for your investment strategy? As its popularity grows, it’s worth exploring its offerings.
The Small Business Bonds Marketplace (SMBX) has emerged as a platform that leverages the JOBS Act, enabling individual investors to provide loans to small businesses. Recently, I decided to investigate this growing platform. Small businesses approach SMBX to secure loans, wherein they outline the loan conditions. Currently, these loans generally yield returns of 6–9% with terms ranging from 2 to 5 years, with some extending up to 10 years. As an investor, the process is straightforward: you invest your funds, and following the closing of the offering, monthly repayments commence the following month. The payments accumulate in your SMBX account, which you can withdraw at your convenience.
While this model appears to offer a promising avenue for passive income, a deeper examination reveals complexities that may temper those expectations.
This video titled "The SMBX Review ($3500 Investment Update): Investing in Small Businesses" delves into the intricacies of investing through SMBX, providing insights into the platform's operations and investment performance.
Section 1.1: Potential Returns Explained
I consulted with SMBX’s media team to analyze the potential returns on investments through their platform. To do so, I referenced the default rates from the Small Business Administration (SBA), often regarded as the benchmark for small business loans. SBA loans, although low-interest, are not guaranteed, and the application process is lengthy and rigorous. Current interest rates for these loans hover between 5–8%, typically with longer durations of up to 10 years.
The default rates for top-performing companies can range from 11% to 25%, indicating that about 1 in 4 loans defaulted during the 2008 economic crisis. Historically, the average default rate is approximately 1 in 6. While we may be approaching another economic downturn that could worsen these rates, I will use the 1 in 6 figure for our calculations.
It's also crucial to understand that these loans are amortized. For instance, on an 8% annual rate, if you loan $1,000, you would receive $1,080 back at the end of the term. However, with an amortized loan, the total paid back would be approximately $1,043.86 due to the diminishing balance after each payment.
To illustrate this, let's consider a scenario involving multiple loans:
- 12 loans of $1,000 each
- 8% APY on amortized loans
- 5-year terms
This represents a favorable outlook for potential returns.
In an ideal situation, assuming all 12 loans are repaid in full, you could expect to earn around:
- $2,599.00 in interest over 5 years
- Total return: $12,000 → $14,599
- Annual ROI: 4%, or a cumulative 21.66% over 5 years.
While the monthly payments provide liquidity, the overall returns may not be impressive. The optimistic assumption of zero defaults across all loans is highly unrealistic.
Section 1.2: Impact of Loan Defaults
Now, let’s consider the implications of loan defaults. It’s important to note that defaults don’t occur immediately; they typically arise after a year when businesses exhaust their resources. For our analysis, we will assume a 50% repayment of loans before default.
Even with these favorable assumptions—akin to SBA default rates—if 33% of loans default, you could incur a loss of approximately $470 over five years.
In a scenario where 8–25% of loans default, you might still see minimal returns. For example, a 25% default rate could yield less than 1% annual return, effectively losing value to inflation. With the average expected default rate of 1 in 6, you would be looking at just under 2% ROI, totaling 8.89% over five years.
Chapter 2: Conclusion—Is SMBX Worth the Investment?
As always, I refrain from dictating how you should manage your finances. However, my analysis leads me to conclude that SMBX represents a high-risk investment with limited potential rewards. The calculations presented are overly favorable to SMBX, considering the likelihood of higher default rates. According to Investopedia, around 20% of small businesses fail within their first two years, and 45% do so within five years. This could lead to default rates nearing 50%, limiting your returns to just 1–2 years of payments. Furthermore, the projected maximum ROI is only 4%, making it a less-than-ideal option for investors.
In the video "Raising Capital by Issuing Small Business Bonds with Ben Stein of SMBX," the discussion centers around the strategies for raising funds through small business bonds, further illuminating the challenges and opportunities within this investment avenue.