Population Growth: A Peak and a Decline

Historically, humanity’s growth has been remarkable. Approximately 4 million people existed 12,000 years ago, and it wasn't until the 19th century that the global population surpassed one billion. The late 20th century saw an explosion in population growth, but we are now reaching a peak, with some regions already on the decline.

China has seen its population decrease since 2022, and Japan has been experiencing a decline since 2009, mirroring global trends. Data from 2021 revealed that half of all global regions were below replacement levels, which poses challenges for societies in need of a robust workforce to support aging populations.

The concept of replacement level fertility is crucial: a fertility rate of 2.1 is required to maintain population levels. Striking findings from The Lancet reveal that in 1950, the global average fertility rate was 4.84 children per woman, dropping to 2.23 by 2021. The peak year for global births occurred in 2016, with around 142 million births, but this number has already decreased to 129 million in 2021.

Sub-Saharan Africa remains the only region above the replacement threshold, largely skewing the global average. However, projections indicate that by 2050, the global total fertility rate will fall to 1.83, and further decline to 1.59 by 2100.

Upside-Down Societies: The Challenges Ahead

In South Korea, the fertility rate plummeted to an alarming 0.82 in 2021, the lowest globally. The implications of sustained low birth rates are significant, particularly as the Baby Boomer generation approaches retirement age, leading to an increasingly imbalanced society.

Japan's demographic landscape is so skewed that a leading diaper manufacturer has announced a shift in production from baby diapers to adult diapers, reflecting the growing elderly population. "We are in a crisis regarding declining births," asserted Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary, Yoshimasa Haya.

As demographics shift, concerns over workforce depletion and the burden on social security systems grow. In Italy, pensions are projected to consume 17% of GDP by 2042, indicating the strain on economic resources as the ratio of workers to retirees diminishes.

In stark contrast, Sub-Saharan Africa continues to experience high fertility rates, with Chad topping the charts at 7 births per woman. However, by 2100, nearly all countries are expected to fall below replacement levels.

The Future in a World with Few Children

The reasons behind declining fertility rates are complex, yet the data paints a clear picture. Parenthood, once viewed as a cherished goal, is now often perceived as an obstacle to personal aspirations. Pope Francis remarked, "The issue isn't about the number of children born; it's about the selfishness and consumerism that lead to loneliness and discontent."

On the flip side, the decline in birth rates has facilitated women's access to education and employment through improved access to contraception. Nonetheless, managing the implications of aging populations will pose significant challenges, potentially necessitating greater immigration into low-birth-rate nations.

The full impact of childless generations remains uncertain, as this phenomenon is unprecedented on such a large scale. Pope Francis poignantly stated, "Without children or young people, a country loses its desire for the future."

The overarching theme connecting all these discussions is the future, intertwined with concerns about living costs, climate change, and conflict. These anxieties can overshadow hopes for a brighter future filled with children, leading to a pervasive sense of despair.

As noted by renowned demographer Nicholas Eberstadt, "Europe's deficit isn't measured in euros; it's measured in babies."

Richard Gordon, an ecologist, explores the interplay between nature and human societies. Subscribe to his email list for weekly insights.