Chapter 1: The Ptolemaic Perspective on Business

What can we learn from Ptolemy's approach to the cosmos? The geocentric model, while it functioned effectively for centuries, was based on observations that seemed logical at the time. When gazing at the night sky, it appeared as though celestial bodies moved around the Earth. In retrospect, it’s amusing to think about the primitive nature of such a model, especially given the extensive historical observations and insights we've acquired.

If we were to observe the night sky without the contributions of earlier thinkers, we might find ourselves developing a model as rudimentary as Ptolemy’s. The scholars of his time were not lacking in intellect; as observation techniques improved, it became apparent that the simple model of “orbs revolving around the Earth” could not adequately explain the complexities of celestial movements.

To refine the geocentric model, Ptolemy introduced epicycles, a sophisticated solution that allowed for better alignment with observations. However, as the accuracy of observations increased, so did the number of necessary epicycles, leading to an increasingly convoluted model.

Then came Galileo, marking a pivotal shift to the heliocentric model, which proved to be far more elegant than Ptolemy's intricate epicycles. While elegance does not guarantee truth—indeed, it can sometimes mask folly—our universe appears to operate under fundamental principles rather than an assortment of random rules.

For quite some time, we haven’t witnessed a scientific paradigm shift akin to Ptolemy's transition to Galileo—at least not in recent memory. Historical patterns in science reveal that such shifts are challenging; often, they only occur when the old paradigm's advocates have passed away.

This resistance to change is mirrored in the business world. Numerous companies struggle to adapt, ultimately succumbing to newer competitors who present innovative ideas more suited to contemporary demands.

In business, akin to the scientific realm, we are continuously making fresh observations and adjusting our understanding of the market landscape. However, navigating the business environment is often more intricate than scientific inquiry. Not only must we revise our models based on new insights, but the very fabric of our reality is also in flux.

Take, for example, the inevitability of the Earth orbiting the sun. Is there anything in business as certain? The answer is no. Companies like Blockbuster once thrived, only to be disrupted by the rise of fast internet services.

Thus, in the realm of business, it’s crucial to not only observe but also to recognize shifts in the environment. These changes could arise from new competitors, unexpected global events like COVID-19, or internal developments such as setting new objectives or launching products.

Ultimately, effectively managing change boils down to cultivating the mental discipline to analyze the consequences of both internal and external transformations within your business. Consider setting a quarterly reminder to reflect on “What was true a year ago that no longer holds?” Based on my experiences, you’ll likely uncover relevant insights each time.

Chapter 2: Learning from Change

The first video titled "10 Years of HCRI #8 Ptolemy Brown (Current HCRI Student 17-18)" provides a personal perspective on how historical models influence current thought processes in business practices.

The second video titled "75c Ptolemaic term premiums keep Fed in system center" explores the impact of historical economic models on modern financial systems, offering insights into adaptation and strategy.